Weather conditions favor the growth of grain and oil crops in the 2023 season

04/08/2023 11:18

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) has updated the estimate of the potential harvest in 2023, increasing it by 7.8 million tons to 76.8 million tons of grain and oilseeds, which is 3 million tons more than last year, although smaller areas were sown.

"The increase in this year's harvest forecast is due to favorable weather conditions and better-than-expected crop yields, although the sown area is 2.2 million hectares lower than last year," the report said.

According to the updated forecast, exports from Ukraine in the new season of 2023/2024 could potentially reach almost 48 million tons, while last season, which ended on June 30, according to UZA, it reached 58 million tons worth about $20 billion.

We will remind, as of August 2, from the beginning of the 2023/24 MR, 2.34 million tons of grain and legumes were exported from Ukraine.

The estimate of the wheat harvest in 2023 improved from 17.9 to 20.2 million tons (in 2022 it was 20.2 million tons, in 2021 — a record 33 million tons). The potential export of wheat in the 2023/2024 marketing year may amount to about 15 million tons, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season, transitional balances amounted to 4.3 million tons.

UZA also increased the forecast of the barley harvest in 2023 from 4.4 to 5.2 million tons (in 2021 — 10.1 million tons, in 2022 — 5.8 million tons), and potential export — to 2.6 million tons

Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season have improved from 24.2 to 26.9 million tons (2021 — 37.6 million tons, 2022 — 27.3 million tons), while exports may amount to about 22 million tons.

The estimate of the sunflower harvest in 2023 has been increased from 12.7 to 13.9 million tons (in 2021 — 16.9 million tons, in 2022 — 11.1 million tons), the potential export may amount to 1.1 million tons, and the processing of sunflower seeds — 12.5 million tons.

UZA preliminarily estimates the 2023 rapeseed harvest at 3.9 million tons, exports at 3.7 million tons, while the soybean harvest is expected to be higher — the estimate has increased from 4.4 to 4.8 million tons, and its potential export in 2023 /2024 marketing year may reach 3.3 million tons.

UZA especially emphasizes that, in general, the export of grain and oilseeds in the new 2023/2024 marketing year can be expected at the indicated level, if Ukraine can export through its Black Sea ports, as well as on the condition that the logistics of alternative routes, including the Danube route, are improved and cheaper.

"Further obstacles to the export of grain from Ukraine will have a negative impact on the availability of grain on the world market and will lead to an increase in prices and, accordingly, to an increase in food inflation in the world. Moreover, in the case of the impossibility of exporting products, Ukrainian farmers can reorient their production and refuse to grow grain, which will further intensify the crisis on the global food market in the medium term," UZA said.

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) has updated the estimate of the potential harvest in 2023, increasing it by 7.8 million tons to 76.8 million tons of grain and oilseeds, which is 3 million tons more than last year, although smaller areas were sown.
"The increase in this year's harvest forecast is due to favorable weather conditions and better-than-expected crop yields, although the sown area is 2.2 million hectares lower than last year," the report said.
According to the updated forecast, exports from Ukraine in the new season of 2023/2024 could potentially reach almost 48 million tons, while last season, which ended on June 30, according to UZA, it reached 58 million tons worth about $20 billion.
We will remind, as of August 2, from the beginning of the 2023/24 MR, 2.34 million tons of grain and legumes were exported from Ukraine.
The estimate of the wheat harvest in 2023 improved from 17.9 to 20.2 million tons (in 2022 it was 20.2 million tons, in 2021 — a record 33 million tons). The potential export of wheat in the 2023/2024 marketing year may amount to about 15 million tons, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season, transitional balances amounted to 4.3 million tons.
UZA also increased the forecast of the barley harvest in 2023 from 4.4 to 5.2 million tons (in 2021 — 10.1 million tons, in 2022 — 5.8 million tons), and potential export — to 2.6 million tons
Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season have improved from 24.2 to 26.9 million tons (2021 — 37.6 million tons, 2022 — 27.3 million tons), while exports may amount to about 22 million tons.
The estimate of the sunflower harvest in 2023 has been increased from 12.7 to 13.9 million tons (in 2021 — 16.9 million tons, in 2022 — 11.1 million tons), the potential export may amount to 1.1 million tons, and the processing of sunflower seeds — 12.5 million tons.
UZA preliminarily estimates the 2023 rapeseed harvest at 3.9 million tons, exports at 3.7 million tons, while the soybean harvest is expected to be higher — the estimate has increased from 4.4 to 4.8 million tons, and its potential export in 2023 /2024 marketing year may reach 3.3 million tons.
UZA especially emphasizes that, in general, the export of grain and oilseeds in the new 2023/2024 marketing year can be expected at the indicated level, if Ukraine can export through its Black Sea ports, as well as on the condition that the logistics of alternative routes, including the Danube route, are improved and cheaper.
"Further obstacles to the export of grain from Ukraine will have a negative impact on the availability of grain on the world market and will lead to an increase in prices and, accordingly, to an increase in food inflation in the world. Moreover, in the case of the impossibility of exporting products, Ukrainian farmers can reorient their production and refuse to grow grain, which will further intensify the crisis on the global food market in the medium term," UZA said.
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